The core support for the bullish potential of Mango Network Token (MANGO) in 2024 comes from its quantifiable technology roadmap and substantive ecosystem expansion plans. The project roadmap clearly plans to complete the key upgrade of the mainnet in the second quarter of 2024. The goal is to significantly increase the network transaction processing speed (TPS) from the current approximately 1,200 transactions per second to 5,500 transactions per second, while reducing the average transaction confirmation time to less than 2 seconds and maintaining the Gas fee per transaction at less than $0.001. If this throughput increase of up to 350% is successfully achieved, it will reach or even exceed the performance leap level brought about by Solana’s technological upgrade during the bull market in 2021, significantly enhancing the network’s competitiveness. The team has set aside a $45 million ecosystem fund, aiming to introduce at least 120 new decentralized applications (Dapps) by the end of 2024, with a particular focus on high-value areas such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization (RWA). Referring to historical cases, after Avalanche invested 300 million US dollars in ecosystem incentives in 2021, its total value locked (TVL) soared from less than 1 billion US dollars to over 15 billion US dollars within 12 months, and the token price increased by more than 300% accordingly. MANGO’s current TVL is approximately 190 million US dollars. If the ecosystem develops smoothly, the TVL has the potential to soar to a scale of 2.5 billion US dollars within this year, which will provide a solid foundation for token demand.
However, the potential bearish factors should not be ignored either. Macroeconomic policies will continue to dominate the risk appetite and capital flow of the entire crypto market. The interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve is a key variable; If the number of interest rate cuts within the year is less than the three times expected by the market or the interest rate cut is less than 100 basis points, the overall valuation of high-risk assets will be under pressure. Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle began in 2022, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies shrank by 75% within nine months, and the prices of most Layer1 tokens dropped by more than 85%. The 90-day rolling correlation between MANGO and the price trend of Bitcoin currently remains at 0.78, indicating that if the price of Bitcoin breaks below the support level of $38,000 due to macro pressure, MANGO is likely to decline simultaneously, with the decline possibly exceeding 20% of the fluctuation range of Bitcoin. At the regulatory level, the enforcement efforts of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show no sign of abating in 2024. Its ongoing lawsuits against major platforms such as Coinbase and Binance have exacerbated market compliance anxiety. Institutional investors’ risk-averse behavior is obvious. Top investment banks such as Morgan Stanley have limited their cryptocurrency allocation to less than 5% of the total value of their clients’ investment portfolios. This may restrict the inflow of incremental funds into emerging public chains like $MANGO, leading to a 30% risk of their daily trading volume shrinking from the current 17 million US dollars.
Supply release in the token economic model is another key pressure point. According to the token unlocking schedule, 580 million new tokens will enter circulation in 2024 (equivalent to 15% of the existing circulation). Calculated at the current price of $0.71, the incremental selling pressure is approximately $41.18 million. If ecological development lags behind or market liquidity deteriorates, resulting in new capital being unable to fully absorb this part of the supply, it will significantly restrain the upward momentum of prices. Historical lessons are worthy of vigilance: Take Axie Infinity as an example. When the monthly inflation rate of its token exceeded 8% in 2022, even though the number of game users was as high as 2.5 million, the token price still dropped by 95% within six months. For $MANGO, although its community governance protocol stipulates that the on-chain burning mechanism can be enabled (up to 50% of the transaction fee per transaction can be burned), the activation of this function requires the approval of token holders through voting. Currently, the estimated probability of approval is only 55%. If the combustion mechanism fails to be activated in time to offset inflation, the annual net inflation rate may exceed 12%, far exceeding the 5% warning line recognized by most institutional investors. Therefore, any rational mango network token price prediction must incorporate this structural pressure into the model calculation.
Based on a comprehensive assessment of market sentiment and technical indicators, professional analysts have set a short-term (6-month) bullish probability for MANGO at around 60%. The key bullish catalysts include: successfully completing the mainnet sharding upgrade (estimated to increase network efficiency by more than 400%), introducing top Dapps with an average daily user volume (DAU) exceeding 80,000, and achieving a monthly average TVL growth rate of over 15% for three consecutive months. In this scenario, in conjunction with the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market (with the total market capitalization returning to 2.2 trillion US dollars), the token price may rise to the range of 1.8 to 2.2 US dollars. On the contrary, bearish risk scenarios (with a probability of occurrence of approximately 40%) involve a technical delay of more than 90 days, a monthly active address count falling below 50,000, and significant regulatory negative factors (such as the passage of the Digital Asset Market Structure Act by the US Congress to restrict new public chains). If this scenario overlaps, the price may retest the support level of $0.45. Derivatives market data suggest that investors adopt a cautious attitude: The funding rate for MANGO perpetual contracts on Binance has remained in the annualized range of 5% to 7% over the past 30 days (lower than the 30% level in the 2021 bull market), and the outstanding contract volume has remained at around 21 million US dollars (only 0.7% of the market capitalization). The current value of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is 54 (neutral). If this indicator remains below 40 for three consecutive weeks, the risk of a market correction rises to 70%. In summary, $MANGO has significant upside potential in 2024 but is accompanied by high volatility. Investors should base their position on the monthly data of the technology implementation progress chain (such as the number of development activity submissions exceeding 450 per month and the total volume of DApp transactions increasing by more than 12% month-on-month), and prepare a 30% position to cope with the potential 20% level of fluctuation.